Russia’s Risky Gamble

An Invasion of Ukraine Could Trigger a larger Conflict

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. (Carolyn Kaster/Pool/AP)

Putin’s “ultimate goal is to destroy Ukraine,” the Ukrainian foreign minister tells CNN.

Per CNN.com:

Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba says he knows what Russian President Vladimir Putin’s long-term objective is.

“His ultimate goal is to destroy Ukraine. He’s not interested in parts of Ukraine. He is not interested in even keeping the entire country under his control,” Kubela said during a live interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper.

My take on this statement is that Putin doesn’t care what sanctions are placed against Russia. He wants to regain control over those countries that seded from Russia. First, Ukraine then the rest of Eastern Europe. No country is safe from Putin’s aggression.

Putin “wants the idea of the Ukrainian statehood to fail. This is his objective.”

My take on this is that Ukraine must gain full military support from NATO, the United States, and our allies to stop Russia from destroying the country. If we don’t help Ukraine, it will send a message to other countries that Russia can’t be stopped. We must defend Ukraine’s democracy. Russia’s aggression can’t be allowed to advance any further.

Kuleba’s comments come one day after President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into pro-Russian regions of eastern Ukraine just hours after he signed decrees recognizing the independence of the Moscow-backed regions.

“What I know for certain, and this was eloquently proved, regretfully, in his address yesterday, is that he hates [the] Ukrainian statehood, he believes that Ukraine has no right to exist,” Kuleba said of Putin.

My take on this is that every country has a right to exist. Russia is being a bully. Putin is that rich kid who believes it’s his right to have anything he wants. If someone gets in his way, he believes he has the right to stop them. In Ukraine’s case, he wants to destroy their country.

Following the deployment of Russian troops into eastern Ukraine, US President Joe Biden said that such maneuvering constitutes the beginning of “an invasion.” In response, Biden announced what he labeled “the first tranche of sanctions,” including on two large financial institutions, Russian sovereign debt, and Russian elites and their family members.

My take on this is that hitting Russia in their wallet will only be a minor annoyance. Russia has allies who will provide financial support to Russia’s elites. China, for example, is a huge ally of Russia. Russia’s banks will weather the storm of this conflict and still remain solvent. Russia is too big of a country and a superpower in its own right, to be stopped by financial trouble.

Though Kuleba supports the sanctions as laid out by Biden, calling them an “important” message, he maintains they are insufficient as the situation stands now.

“No sanctions will be enough until Russian boots withdraw from Ukrainian soil,” said Kuleba on CNN. “This is [the] fundamental principle, that we have to keep putting pressure on Russia and we in Ukraine proceed from the fact that the sanctions announced today by President Biden is just the beginning of the process of deterring president Putin and making him withdraw.”

My take on this is that Biden needs to give Russia a reason to pump the brakes. If the United States sends its own troops into the region that may make Putin halt his advances. I don’t think Putin wants to go to war with the United States. The world doesn’t need a World War III. We all know how that could potentially end — with nuclear weapons.

On the topic of specific forthcoming sanctions, Kuleba suggested no single option or possibility should be left off the global table.

“We want every instrument available to be used in order to stop Putin,” he said. “If the price of saving a country is the most, harshest sanctions possible, then we should go for the harshest sanctions possible.”

While Kuleba told Tapper that the moving of Russian troops into the Ukrainian-controlled parts of the Donbas region would mark another crossing of a line by Putin, he noted that the ongoing conflict manifests itself along with a multitude of fronts.

“We should be aware of the simple fact: this is hybrid warfare. Russia can attack physically, but also Russian can attack us in cyberspace … We are in a dialogue with partners including the United States about the identification of these red lines which will be responded with sanctions,” he said, adding, “I want to make it clear that we have to get ready to act in a very swift manner because the situation can change literally every hour.”

Asked by Tapper to explain why the United States — which sits thousands of miles from Ukraine — ought to be invested in the conflict, Kuleba pointed to three key factors.

• “First, in 1994 Ukraine abandoned its nuclear arsenal which was the third in size in the world … We abandoned it in return for security guarantees issued in particular by the United States. We were promised that if anyone attacks us, the United States would be among countries who will be helping us.”
• “Second, what is happening in Ukraine is not only about Ukraine. President Putin challenges the Euro-Atlantic order. If the West fails in Ukraine, the next target of Putin will be one of the NATO members on its eastern flank.”
• “Third, if Putin succeeds in Ukraine, other players across the globe who want to change rules, who want to bypass the United States, they will see that this is possible, that the West is incapable of defending what it stands for.”

In summing up his explanation as to why the US involvement in the conflict is appropriate, Kuleba said: “All in all … Americans should be interested in keeping the world order as it stands and the future of this order is being decided right now in Ukraine.” (CNN.com)

My final take on this is that the United States must display a show of force along with its NATO allies. Ukraine cannot fall into Russia’s hands. Russia must not gain control of Eastern Europe. Putin must be put in his place. If it doesn’t happen, the rest of Europe — and possibly the world — could be lost.